July Jobs Report Hits Today: Will Bitcoin Bounce Again?

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics drops the July nonfarm payrolls report today, and economists expect a modest gain of 83,000 jobs with unemployment holding at 4.2 percent. Bitcoin traders are watching the numbers closely to see if the market reacts the same way it did back in June. When June numbers missed expectations, Bitcoin jumped 4 percent on hopes that softer hiring might keep the Federal Reserve from hiking interest rates.

That initial bump did not last long last time. Bitcoin eventually slipped as several Fed officials signaled a more hawkish stance, and Treasury yields hit multi year highs. Stronger jobs reports in other months have also put pressure on crypto prices, showing that the market reacts heavily to shifts in macroeconomic data and central bank policy expectations.

Today could bring mixed signals. Vanguard data points to a very weak payroll gain of just 18,000 jobs, while Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook recently noted a low hire and low fire equilibrium. Bitcoin is currently changing hands around $64,305, showing a mild 0.5 percent gain over the past 24 hours while waiting for the catalyst.

Traders should watch the headline print and pay attention to how central bank officials frame the broader economic outlook. If the jobs data misses badly, expect a quick knee jerk reaction in the market. How long any resulting price move holds will depend entirely on what the Fed decides to do next with monetary policy.