Could the 18 Year Housing Cycle Signal a Coming Market Crash?

Macro analyst Jason Pizzino is raising red flags about a potential market correction based on a long term property cycle. By tracking 220 years of US real estate data, he suggests that housing markets often peak before a broader economic downturn. If this 18 year cycle holds true, we might see the housing peak arrive between 2025 and 2026.

The data shows some clear cooling in the housing sector. New home sales dropped by 10.5 percent in July, and median prices have reached their lowest point in five years. Builder confidence is also struggling, sitting well below the neutral mark. Pizzino watches homebuilder D.R. Horton closely as a leading indicator, noting that a break below $130 would confirm his concerns for the wider market.

Bitcoin remains the wild card in this scenario. While the asset has reclaimed its 200 day moving average and shows strength, future gains may depend on credit conditions. Pizzino expects Bitcoin could hit $120,000, though he warns that a rally to $180,000 will be difficult if the broader economy loses its momentum.

Experts suggest using this information as a guide rather than a precise calendar. While the cycle highlights a high risk zone for investors, other voices in the space recommend sticking to a consistent investment strategy regardless of predicted crashes. The main takeaway is to prepare for volatility now rather than waiting for liquidity to dry up.