CLARITY Act Odds Drop Below 20% on Polymarket

Crypto traders on Polymarket have grown increasingly skeptical about the future of the CLARITY Act. Betting odds for the bill being signed into law this year have plummeted to under 20 percent, a sharp decline from the 82 percent confidence level seen back in February. This shift reflects growing frustration over the slow pace of Senate negotiations and the tightening legislative calendar.

Legislative progress stalled as the Senate entered its August recess without holding a vote. While Senate Majority Leader Thune has scheduled a vote for September 15, time is running out. Experts point to September 30 as a critical deadline, as lawmakers are expected to shift their focus toward election campaigns and partisan disputes shortly after that date.

The bill aims to create a clear federal framework for digital assets by defining the roles of the SEC and the CFTC. Supporters believe this would bring much needed stability to the industry by replacing agency guidance with permanent law. However, unresolved disagreements regarding ethics provisions continue to act as a significant barrier to gaining the necessary bipartisan support.

Whether the September vote can turn the tide remains the biggest question for the market. Until lawmakers reach a consensus on the remaining issues, the low odds on prediction markets indicate that most traders expect the bill to remain stuck in limbo for the rest of the year.