Bitcoin Bounce To $65K Faces Strain As Spot Demand Fades

Bitcoin recently climbed roughly 13 percent from its late June low near $58,000, bringing the price back up to around $65,000. While traders are celebrating the green candles, fresh on chain data indicates this move looks more like a temporary relief rally than a true market recovery. Unrealized losses remain larger than they were during the February crash, and spot market demand is still shrinking.

A closer look at the market structure reveals that futures traders are driving the current price action. Perpetual futures demand flipped to net positive in July, adding up to 50,000 Bitcoin, but this buying power is much weaker than the massive demand surges seen earlier in the year. Meanwhile, spot demand has stayed negative all year, contracting by about 200,000 Bitcoin every month. Rallies built mostly on futures leverage tend to struggle without strong organic spot buying to back them up.

For the market to turn genuinely bullish, buyers need to push the price past the Short Term Holder cost basis sitting at $69,500. Reclaiming that level would put recent buyers back in profit and open the door toward the True Market Mean near $76,200. On the flip side, losing the major Realized Price support at $52,900 could drag prices down toward a deeper bear market bottom, making the next Federal Reserve rate decision a crucial moment to watch.