Traders Give Low Odds for Nvidia Reaching $272 This Month

Prediction market traders are assigning a low probability to Nvidia reaching $272 by the end of September 2026. Current data shows just a 3 percent chance of the stock hitting that target before the month ends, which would require an 18 percent gain from its price near $230.

Instead, market participants expect the stock to trade in a tighter range. Data from Polymarket shows a 73 percent probability that Nvidia stays above $224, along with a 66 percent chance of hitting between $232 and $240. On the bullish side, traders see a 40 percent chance of reaching $248 and a 20 percent chance of $256. On the downside, a drop to $216 carries a 39 percent chance, while a fall to $200 sits at just 10 percent.

This cautious market outlook comes despite record financial results for Nvidia. The company recently reported second quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, representing a 106 percent increase year over year, driven by massive demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure. Management also guided for third quarter revenue of about $108 billion.

Traders will watch upcoming tech sector performance and artificial intelligence demand trends to see if the stock can break out of its current range in the coming months.