Traders Bet on SpaceX Stock Price for July Close

Prediction markets are signaling a cautious outlook for SpaceX stock as the end of July approaches. Data from Polymarket shows a 96 percent probability that the stock will close above $100 by the end of the month. However, confidence fades quickly at higher price points, with traders giving a 68 percent chance for a finish above $120 and only a 55 percent chance for a close above $130.

This trend highlights a market that expects the stock to remain within a narrow range. While SpaceX reached highs near $225 after its June 2026 debut, it has since retraced to trade around $123. Investors are currently watching valuation concerns and upcoming share releases, which keep sentiment grounded.

Looking forward, the upcoming earnings report on August 4 stands as the next major test for the company. Traders are waiting for more clarity on Starship development and Starlink growth before committing to a larger rally. Until that report arrives, the market seems to favor a conservative range for the stock price.