Quantum Threat: Bitcoin and Ethereum Attack Costs Drop Sharply

New research shows that attacking Bitcoin and Ethereum using quantum computing might be cheaper than experts previously thought. A public challenge focused on optimizing a key circuit for the elliptic curve used by both networks has resulted in a major efficiency gain. The latest designs require significantly fewer qubits and gates than the previous benchmarks set by Google Quantum AI earlier this year.

The improvement centers on point addition, a process used within Shor's algorithm to potentially recover private keys from public keys. While this is not an active attack and we are still far from having the necessary hardware, the findings suggest that the barrier to entry for such a threat is shrinking. Currently, millions of Bitcoin sit in addresses where the public key is visible on the blockchain.

Industry leaders are taking notice as artificial intelligence tools help researchers optimize these complex circuits faster than ever. StarkWare CEO Eli Ben Sasson noted that the gap between theory and reality is closing more quickly than expected.

This development reinforces why the Ethereum Foundation and other major projects are already planning for a post quantum future. With a target deadline for security upgrades set for December 2029, the industry has a clear timeline to transition wallets and smart contracts before any functional quantum machine exists to challenge current encryption standards.