George Santos Settles CFTC Case Over Kalshi Prediction Market

Former U.S. Representative George Santos has reached a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over charges of manipulating a prediction market. Federal regulators revealed that Santos traded on a Kalshi market tied directly to his own attendance at the State of the Union address.

According to the final order, Santos initially bought Yes contracts on whether he would show up to the event. He later flipped his position to No while continuing to tell the public that he planned to attend. This tactic allowed him to profit from traders who believed his public statements.

As part of the settlement, Santos agreed to pay $35,069.98 and will face a three year ban from trading under CFTC oversight. The case highlights growing regulatory focus on prediction markets, especially when participants have direct control over the outcomes they bet on.