Could Bitcoin Drop to $45,000 by October 2026?

Bitcoin is facing a split between short term resilience and long term caution. While the price sits near $64,700, some analysts are warning that the recent news regarding the closure of BitMEX could trigger a larger market dip. By comparing current events to historical exchange collapses like Mt. Gox and FTX, some observers suggest we may see a decline toward $45,000 by the start of the fourth quarter of 2026.

This bearish theory relies on technical indicators like the 100 month moving average and historical buy zones that have marked previous market bottoms. These charts suggest that the current cycle may be nearing a final capitulation phase. If this holds true, October could become a key period for investors looking for a long term entry point.

In the immediate term, traders are focused on a different support level at $63,800. Analysts note that if this price holds, Bitcoin could climb back to $67,000 soon. However, a drop below this mark could lead to a test of $60,000. For now, the market continues to weigh these technical warnings against the recent surge in spot ETF inflows.