Bitcoin Volatility Drops to Historic Lows Despite Bear Pressures

Bitcoin is deep in a bear market, but it is doing something very unusual by sitting still. A recent report from investment firm VanEck shows that thirty day realized volatility has fallen to 27.2 percent annualized. This is down from 30.4 percent the prior month and sits at less than half of the long run average of roughly 80 percent. For an asset famous for wild daily swings, the market is currently experiencing rare stillness.

Trading activity tells a similar story of a market taking a break. Spot volume over the trailing thirty days dropped 27 percent from the prior month, reaching levels last seen during the 2023 bear market. At the same time, long term holders have started parting with their coins. The amount of bitcoin held for more than a year fell by about 356000 tokens over the month, pushing the long term holder share below 60 percent for the first time in months.

Despite the quiet trading ranges, VanEck points out that eight out of twelve tracked capitulation signals are flashing. This pattern is consistent with the later stages of a market drawdown. Based on past cycles, the firm suggests a market bottom could form between September and November of this year. Traders should keep a close eye on these months, as markets rarely stay this quiet for long.