Arthur Hayes Says Watch the EUR/JPY for the Next Bitcoin Rally

Arthur Hayes, the lead at Maelstrom, is telling traders to look past recent hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve figures. Instead, he believes the EUR/JPY exchange rate holds the real key to understanding upcoming dollar liquidity. Hayes predicts that the currency pair could drop to 140 by next June as the US Treasury tries to improve its export competitiveness by strengthening Asian currencies.

The core of the argument involves potential stress on French banks like BNP Paribas and Societe Generale. Since these institutions play a major role in the US repo market, any pullback from them could force the Federal Reserve to print money to keep things stable. Hayes suggests that if the Fed steps in to support the repo market, this influx of liquidity will act as a major boost for the price of Bitcoin.

While the market has reacted sharply to recent Fed speeches, Hayes remains focused on his long term thesis. He views the current central bank chatter as noise compared to the structural need for liquidity. His firm continues to hold Bitcoin as a primary asset, and he even shared high price targets for Ethereum and ENA for the end of 2026.

Bitcoin prices have seen some turbulence lately following regional conflicts and hawkish rhetoric. Despite dipping below 77,000 dollars, the asset has shown signs of recovery. Traders are now watching closely to see if the liquidity patterns Hayes describes will materialize into the next major leg up for the crypto market.