Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin at $1 Million Following AI Credit Bust

Arthur Hayes is back with a bold new prediction for Bitcoin. In a recent essay titled Situationship, the BitMEX co founder argued that Bitcoin will reach $1 million after an upcoming artificial intelligence credit bust. He believes the massive spending on artificial intelligence data centers mirrors the 2008 mortgage crisis rather than the 2000 dot com bubble. According to Hayes, companies are funding these projects with borrowed money instead of cash flow, which creates heavy default risks for lenders.

Hayes expects capital spending growth to slow down by 2027. Once that happens, he thinks the Federal Reserve and other central banks will step in with emergency bailouts and printed money. That flood of fresh liquidity is the main catalyst that will push Bitcoin toward seven figure territory. He also pointed to a potential $5,000 price target for Ethereum by the end of 2026 due to its role in settling tokenized real world assets.

Despite his long term bullish stance, Hayes warned that traders should prepare for short term pain. He previously outlined a possible drop to $40,000 for Bitcoin before any major rally takes off. Market participants will need to keep a close eye on corporate earnings and bank loan books over the coming quarters to see if the artificial intelligence credit cycle starts to crack.