Analyst Benjamin Cowen Predicts Bitcoin Bear Market May Return

Market analyst Benjamin Cowen maintains a cautious outlook on Bitcoin, suggesting there is a 65 percent chance the current bear market is not over. Despite a strong summer rally, Cowen believes the cycle low may still be in front of us. He compares recent price action to patterns seen in 2018 and 2022, where mid year rallies were followed by drops in the fourth quarter.

Cowen points to the realized price of Bitcoin, which currently sits near $53,000, as a key historical marker. In past midterm years, the market bottomed after testing this aggregate cost basis. He argues that betting against this historical trend would be a mistake, even if the final outcome ends up being different this time around.

Looking ahead, Cowen plans to watch the performance of Bitcoin throughout October. He notes that if the price clears this month without dropping to new lows, he will begin to shift his perspective toward a more bullish outlook. He suggests that investors might be better served by dollar cost averaging rather than trying to time the market bottom perfectly.

Cowen emphasizes that his analysis is not financial advice. He plans to reassess his position as the fourth quarter progresses and remains focused on the potential for more price swings before any long term bottom is confirmed.